Betting for Value

Understanding the concept of value in golf betting (indeed in any form of sports betting) is crucial to betting profitably.

Put simply, betting for value means not necessarily backing the golfer most likely to win but backing the golfer whose odds you assess are greater than his actual chances to win.

To illustrate this point, the odds of a coin toss landing either heads or tails are the same, even money or 50/50.

Now let's assume for a moment that a bookmaker was willing to offer you odds of 6/4 (2.5 in exchange odds) against the coin landing heads.

You are now getting tremendous value to back heads. Every time the coin lands heads-up, you win one and a half times your stake so if 100 coin tosses are split equally between heads and tails, you'll win handsomely.

Now ofcourse the above scenario is highly unlikely, because the bookmaker knows the real chances of each possible outcome. But in sports betting, the bookmaker (and punter) can only make educated assessments on the likelihood of a particular outcome.

Apart from a golfer's current form and statistics, the bookmaker also has to factor in how he expects punters to bet when setting his prices. For example, he may expect plenty of money for the big name golfers like Els, Woods, and Michaelson and shorten their prices accordingly.

The bookmakers make their money by running a balanced book whereby they take money on a wide range of players and offer odds that generate an overround.

So when the betting unfolds, they must also factor in weight of money for particular players and again adjust prices. They'll shorten the odds of those golfers they've laid large bets on and lengthen the odds of unbacked players in order to attract money for them and create a balanced book.

This is important because the lengthening of odds due to book balancing considerations creates value betting opportunities for the astute gambler

Conversely, there can also be value to lay bets on a particular golfer, if you assess the odds you can lay the bet at are shorter than the players actual chances of winning.

For example, in the 2004 season Tiger Woods struggled for form and consistency and won just once on the US PGA tour, at the WGC-Accenture Matchplay Championship in February 2004. Yet despite his lack of accuracy off the tees, Woods has remained tournament favourite at ridiculously short prices (often 5/1 or less) for the last few months.

Anyone laying bets on Woods on betting exchanges like BetDaqthis season would have made some handsome profits.

Ofcourse, it's not always easy to decide whether a player represents value to back (or lay) - assessing odds is after all, a subjective experience. But factors to take into consideration include:-

• Players recent form - probably the single most important factor when making a selection.
• Previous tournament form - Whether a golfer has performed well on a particular tournament or course in previous years. The "horses for courses" concept very much applies in golf.
• The length of the course - Golfers who can drive further off the tee will obviously be at an advantage on the longer courses. Shorter courses negate this advantage though and often play into the hands of players with excellent short games.
• The width of the fairways - This is important because the less accurate (even if longer) hitters will struggle on golf courses with tight fairways.
• The weather during a tournament - High winds reward accuracy on the fairways and keeping the ball low off the tee. Certain players are better at doing this than others.
• The ability to handle pressure - Will a player "choke" or thrive when the heats really on during a tournaments closing stages?

The searchable golf stats section displays at-a-glance golfer finishing position for over 1200 golfers from all over the world. Or check out our top ten finishes page to get an instant overview of whose currently in form. Also the 2006 golf tournament schedules for both the European and US PGA tours and is updated weekly.

My weekly Golf Betting Tips Newsletter previews the forthcoming weeks tournaments on both sides of the 'pond' and provides detailed summaries for all my tournament picks, including where to find the best value odds online.